El Habanero

How to play El Habanero

“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

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GeoComply processed 99.8 million geolocation checks during Week 1 of the NFL season, reflecting a dramatic surge in sports betting activity. New player registrations also spiked, with sign-ups jumping over 310% to hit 135,700.

The numbers underscore the NFL’s massive pull with sports bettors, but Week 1 also offered a clear snapshot of how football betting economics are evolving, according to Legal Sports Report (LSR).

GeoComply, a Vancouver-based anti-fraud and geolocation technology company, provides compliance services to sportsbook clients worldwide.

How to play El Habanero

The timing is significant. The illegal gambling market is attracting growing attention from regulators and the wider industry, while estimates of its size vary considerably depending on definitions and methodology.

A recent Fincord Intelligence report highlighted by the Betting and Gaming Council estimated that illegal online gambling generated around $50 billion in gross revenue globally in 2025. It estimated that around 5,000 operator structures were using more than 15,000 websites and apps.

Other estimates are considerably higher, illustrating how difficult the market is to measure. As an example, separate research from Gaming Compliance International put the value of unregulated online gambling at $5.9 trillion in wagering value in 2025, while estimating that unregulated operators accounted for 78% of global online gaming GGR.